Employment

Select Urban Growth Boundary:	*
Forecast Region:
Run Date:	*

Forecast Employment Growth

Population Based
Population Forecast ()				004 OAR 660-038-0100(2) Calculates the current population of the UGB using the most recent population estimate issued by the Portland State University Population Research Center.
Population Forecast ()				006 OAR 660-038-0100(1) Calculates the forecast population of the city’s UGB for the 14-year period from the year in which the UGB analysis was initiated based on the most recent forecast issued by the Portland State University Population Research Center.
Growth Rate				010 OAR 660-038-0100(3) Calculates the rate of population growth for the city over the 14-year period based on sections (1) and (2).
Source: Oregon Population Forecast Program
	Commercial	Industrial	Total
Jobs ()				020 OAR 660-038-0100(4) Using Table 3, calculates the current number of “commercial” and “industrial” jobs in the UGB, based on the definitions in OAR 660-038-0010.
Forecast New Jobs ()				030 OAR 660-038-0100(5) Calculates the forecast of new commercial and new industrial jobs anticipated to occur in the UGB for the 14-year planning period.
New jobs on non-employment lands (20%)				040 OAR 660-038-0100(6) Calculates for jobs that are likely to occur on land that is zoned for uses other than commercial or industrial (and which therefore will not require buildable “employment land”), and reduces the forecast of new jobs determined in section (5) by 20 percent.
New jobs on employment lands				050 OAR 660-038-0100(7) Calculates the new commercial and industrial jobs forecast for the 14-year planning period to be accommodated on employment lands in the UGB.
Source: Oregon Employment Department and DLCD (OAR 660-038)
Employment Forecast Based
	Commercial	Industrial	Total
Jobs ()				055 OAR 660-038-0110 As an alternative to the method provided in OAR 660-038-0100, to forecast 14-year employment growth based on the most recent long-term job forecast issued by the Oregon Employment Department (OED), (1) Calculates the number of “commercial” and “industrial” jobs currently in the UGB as provided in Table 3.
Projected Employment Growth Rate				060 OAR 660-038-0110(2) Using Table 4, calculates the long-term growth rates forecast by OED for commercial jobs and for industrial jobs in the OED region that includes the city. For purposes of this rule, “OED region” means Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act (WIOA) Areas for which OED forecasts long-term job growth.
Forecast New Jobs ()				070 OAR 660-038-0110(3) Calculates the forecast of new commercial and new industrial jobs anticipated to occur in the UGB for the 14-year planning period.
New jobs on non-employment lands (20%)				080 OAR 660-038-0110(4) Calculates the jobs that are likely to occur on land that is zoned for uses other than commercial or industrial (and which therefore will not require buildable “employment land”), and reduces the forecast of new commercial and industrial jobs determined in subsections (3)(a) and (3)(b) by 20 percent.
New jobs on employment lands				090 OAR 660-038-0110(5) Calculates the result of new commercial and industrial jobs forecast for the 14-year planning period to be accommodated on employment lands in the UGB.
Source: Oregon Employment Department and DLCD (OAR 660-038)

Buildable Employment Land within the UGB

	Total Acres	Developed Acres	Constrained Acres	Buildable Acres	100 OAR 660-038-0120 After determining the supply and development capacity of employment lands within your UGB by conducting a BLI as provided in this rule, enter the commercial and industrial lands inventory below based on the categories of Vacant, Partially Vacant, and Developed. OAR 660-038-0130 Adjust the inventory and account for constrained lands using this rule and enter the information for all categories of Vacant, Partially Vacant, and Developed.
Commercial
Developed	*	*	*
Partially Vacant	*	*	*
Vacant	*	*	*
Industrial
Developed	*	*	*
Partially Vacant	*	*	*
Vacant	*	*	*
Total
Developed
Partially Vacant
Vacant

Employment Density (jobs per acre)

	Commercial	Industrial	Total
Current Jobs ()				110 OAR 660-038-0100 The Calculator determines the current commercial and industrial jobs from Table 3 when the user clicks "Calculate."
Jobs on non-employment lands (20%)				120 OAR 660-038-0120 The calculator determines jobs on non-employment lands by subtracting 20% from the current jobs in Table 3 to account for jobs not occurring on industrial or commercially zones lands when the user clicks "Calculate".
Current jobs on employment lands				130 OAR 660-038-0100 The Calculator determines the current commercial and industrial minus the jobs on non-employment lands when the user clicks "Calculate".
Developed Employment Land				140 OAR 660-038-0100 The Calculator determines the developed employment land based on user input in the previous section (buildable land inventory) after the user clicks "Calculate".
Current Employment Density				150 OAR 660-038-0100 The calculator determines developed employment land by dividing the number of jobs (minus the non-employment lands) by the amount of developed industrial and commercial land determined in the BLI. The result is the current density of industrial and commercial uses (jobs per acre) in the UGB. when the user clicks "Calculate".
Efficiency Gain	% *	%		160 OAR 660-038-0100 Enter an efficiency gain for commercial density. The calculator displays the permissible range for the selected city allowed by rule.
Anticipated Employment Density

New Land Need

	Commercial	Industrial	Total	180 The calculations for the New Land Need are based on the information above and will auto calculate commercial and industrial land needs for both the Population Method and the Employment Forecast Method. Click Calculate at the bottom to see the results.
Population Based
Net New Land Need
Gross New Land Need (add 15% for roads and public facilities)
Available Vacant Land
Available Land minus Land Need
Does need exceed available land?
Employment Forecast Based
Net New Land Need
Gross New Land Need (add 15% for roads and public facilities)
Available Vacant Land
Available Land minus Land Need
Does need exceed available land?
If new land need does not exceed available land, do not proceed. Otherwise, see OAR 660-038-0150 for further instructions.

Please wait...